College Gang
Will the Goa trip actually happen this year?
43%
chance
YES if at least four of us are in Goa together before 31 Dec. Bookings alone don't count.
Closes in 67d · 5 players · 530 Kaudi
How it works
A prediction market for your friend group: you bet play-money Kaudi on what your people will actually do, and the price shows what everyone really believes. Here's every part of it, with examples you can poke at.
01 · The whole thing
A Goa trip, eight steps, and the screens you'll see at each one.
Step 01
A private group for your gang, office or family. Everyone gets 1,000 Kaudi a season. Invite people with a link; it opens straight into the group.
College Gang
6 members · Season 2 · ends in 20d
bolathana.in/join/h76uceq8
Step 02
Write the question, how you'll know the answer, and when betting closes. Pick a starting chance. A market costs 20 Kaudi, refunded once two friends trade on it.
Question
Will the Goa trip actually happen this year?
How will we know?
YES if at least four of us are in Goa together before 31 Dec. Bookings alone don't count.
Betting closes
31 Dec, 9:00 pm
Starting chance
50%
Step 03
Buy YES or NO. Disagree with the crowd and your shares come cheap. Every share pays 1 Kaudi if you're right and nothing if you're not.
200
Pakka! Buy NO
Step 04
Every bet nudges the chance, so the number always shows what the group believes. Changed your mind? Sell any time before betting closes.
43% chance of YES
Step 05
When the answer is known, the creator calls YES, NO or cancel. Betting stops and a 12-hour challenge window opens.
Result proposed
Rahul says YES
It becomes final in 11h unless someone challenges it.
Challenge it · 25 Kaudi bond
Step 06
Stake a 25 Kaudi bond to challenge. Up to five members with nothing riding on it vote on what really happened. Overturn the call and your bond comes back.
Panchayat · voting closes in 18h
Only members with nothing riding on the market sit on the Panchayat. Votes stay secret until it's decided.
Step 07
Each winning share pays 1 Kaudi. Profit turns into XP, and XP moves you up the tiers. Cancelled markets refund everyone.
Final result · YES
Step 08
Every winner gets a receipt with its own preview image, made for the group chat. It says exactly how early you called it.
Bola tha na!
Rahul called YES at 26%
🎓 College Gang
Will the Goa trip actually happen this year?
+312
02 · Prices
Every share pays 1 Kaudi if you're right. So a YES share at 30% costs about 0.30, and the crowd's money sets the number. Move the slider and see.
You buy
With
At 30% for YES, 100 buys about 252 shares, an average of 0.40 Kaudi each. Your own bet moves the chance of YES from 30% to 50%.
Cheap shares mean big upside: that's why calling something at 10% feels so good. Each share pays exactly 1 Kaudi if you're right. Sell before the market closes and you get the current price instead.
03 · Sandbox
1,000 demo Kaudi. Bet, sell, let the gang react, then fast-forward to the result.
🎓 College Gang · sandbox
43% chance of YES
YES if at least four of us are in Goa together before 31 Dec. Bookings alone don't count.
bought YES for 40 34% → 43%
“Manifesting.”
bought NO for 60 42% → 34%
“My leave is not approved yet.”
bought NO for 80 55% → 42%
“Rahul's spreadsheet has one row and it says Goa.”
bought YES for 150 26% → 55%
“This time it's different. I made a spreadsheet.”
bought NO for 200 50% → 26%
“Third year running. Not falling for it again.”
Your friends react
Fast-forward to the result
04 · Disputes
A 12-hour window to challenge any call. A 25 Kaudi bond. Up to five neutral members vote.
🏋️ Gym Accountability
Priya calls it
“NO. Two check-ins, not three.”
Kabir challenges with a 25 Kaudi bond
“I went 3 times! The third time I just didn't change into gym clothes.”
Rahul comments
“Bro, that was the gym cafeteria.”
The Panchayat · members with nothing riding on it
Verdict: NO.
2 of 3 said NO, so Priya's call stands. The NO side gets paid and Kabir's 25 Kaudi bond is gone. Had they overturned it, he'd have got it back. A tie keeps the original call. Nobody to judge a two-person fight? The market is cancelled and everyone is refunded.
05 · Kaudi, seasons and tiers
Kaudi can't be bought, sold or cashed out, and that's a hard rule. Seasons reset everyone's balance; XP and tiers stay with you.
🎓 College Gang · Season 2
Ends in 20d
1,434
+434
1,212
+212
1,096
+96
1,017
+17
958
−42
🐈⬛ Panauti of the season. Do the opposite.
781
−219
Kaudi in hand plus open bets at today's prices. Hall of fame: Season 1 went to Sneha 🏆 with 1,434 Kaudi.
Tukkebaaz
Lucky guesser
0 XP
Everything you need to play
Jyotishi
Reads the stars, sometimes right
1,000 XP
Emoji avatar
Gyaani
Actually knows things
5,000 XP
Glowing ring
Trikaaldarshi
Sees past, present and future
20,000 XP
Golden crown
06 · Receipts
Bola tha na!
Sneha called YES at 7%
College Gang
Will Ankit finish the Mumbai half marathon?
+349
Bola tha na!
Priya called NO at 65%
Saturday Squad
Will Rahul reach the restaurant before 8 PM?
+181
Bola tha na!
Kabir called YES at 22%
Hostel B-Wing
Will the mess serve biryani this Friday?
+240
07 · Ideas
Steal one of these.
College Gang
YES if at least four of us are in Goa together before 31 Dec. Bookings alone don't count.
Closes in 67d · 5 players · 530 Kaudi
Saturday Squad
YES if Rahul is seated by 8:00 PM IST, as confirmed by whoever booked the table.
Closes in 2d · 7 players · 1,260 Kaudi
School Friends
YES if anyone other than Ankit replies in the group within 60 minutes of his message.
Closes in 5h · 9 players · 410 Kaudi
Board Game Night
YES if Sneha wins and nobody raises their voice. The host's call is final.
Resolved NO · 6 players · 690 Kaudi
Hostel B-Wing
YES if biryani is on Friday's lunch or dinner menu. Photo proof in the group.
Closes in 3d · 14 players · 2,140 Kaudi
Thesis Support Group
Commitment market: Priya can only bet YES on herself. YES if her guide confirms receipt.
Closes in 21d · 4 players · 610 Kaudi
Final Year CSE
YES if the viva moves to a later date, per the department notice board.
Closes in 1d · 22 players · 980 Kaudi
Office Chai Break
YES if the official calendar invite moves to a later date.
Closes in 12d · 18 players · 3,420 Kaudi
Product Team
YES if it's live for every user before Diwali, per the release notes.
Closes in 14d · 11 players · 2,870 Kaudi
Standup Survivors
YES if the call ends within 15 minutes of starting, per the meeting log.
Closes in 2d · 8 players · 760 Kaudi
Family (no forwards)
YES if Mummy says yes in the family group. “We'll see” is NO.
Closes in 9d · 5 players · 340 Kaudi
Cousins
YES if the baraat leaves within 15 minutes of the time on the card.
Closes in 6d · 16 players · 1,520 Kaudi
Family (no forwards)
YES if Papa makes a UPI payment on his own, with a screenshot in the group as proof.
Closes in 6d · 6 players · 520 Kaudi
Gully Cricket Club
Resolves on the official result. A draw is NO.
Closes in 6d · 21 players · 4,980 Kaudi
Gully Cricket Club
YES if the last over is bowled with the ball we started with.
Closes in 4d · 12 players · 820 Kaudi
Movie Night
YES if the worldwide opening weekend tops ₹100 crore, per the producer's announcement.
Closes in 40d · 13 players · 2,310 Kaudi
Movie Night
YES if the film starts playing before 10:00 PM IST. Trailers and arguing about what to watch don't count.
Closes in 1d · 5 players · 430 Kaudi
Mumbai Monsoon Watch
YES if IMD Santacruz records any rain on Saturday.
Called YES · challenge window · 9 players · 640 Kaudi
Hyderabad Folks
YES if HMRL announces services after 12:00 AM on 1 Jan.
Closes in 66d · 15 players · 1,180 Kaudi
Gym Accountability
YES if Kabir checks in on three separate days. Check-in screenshots count.
Panchayat voting · 2 players · 130 Kaudi
Run Club
Commitment market: the runner can only bet YES on himself. Strava totals decide.
Closes in 36d · 7 players · 570 Kaudi
08 · Questions
No. Kaudi are play money: you can't buy them, cash them out or send them to anyone. Winning gets you XP, tiers and bragging rights, nothing else. Keeping real money out is a hard rule, not a setting.
An automated market maker (Hanson's LMSR) quotes every trade, so there's always a price even with three friends. Buying YES nudges the chance up and buying NO nudges it down. The chance is simply what the group's money says.
Every call has a 12-hour challenge window. Anyone can challenge with a 25 Kaudi bond, and up to five members with nothing riding on the market vote on what happened. Write clear rules and you'll rarely need them.
Claim 50 Kaudi of pocket money once a day. Every season (a month by default) everyone restarts with the same balance, so a bad week never ends your run.
Yes: commitment markets. “Will I run 50 km in November?” Bet YES on yourself and let your friends bet NO. It's the most motivating thing in the app.
Only its members. A shared market link shows the question and the odds, and lets friends join with the invite inside it. Nothing is public unless you share it.
Anyone's health or safety, or anything that rewards hurting someone. If a question is about a person, make sure they're in on the joke.
Nothing. No ads, no coins to buy, no premium tier.